Opinion | No longer unthinkable: the U.S. invasion of Canada

March 28, 2025

2 min read

By Andrew PhillipsStaff Columnist

Andrew Phillips is a Toronto-based staff columnist for the Star’s Opinion page. Reach him via email: aphillips@thestar.ca

The most sobering thing I’ve read in the past couple of weeks comes from Timothy Snyder, the renowned historian of Ukraine. Snyder, who’s been studying modern-day authoritarianism for years, draws a strong parallel between how Vladimir Putin sees Ukraine and how Donald Trump views Canada.

Most jarringly, Snyder argues that Trump is preparing the ground not just for an economic assault on Canada, but for actual war. Trump has spread the ideas that Canada is not a real country, that it’s been “ripping off” the United States for decades, and (worst of all) killing Americans by allowing fentanyl to pour over the border.

“The imperialist rhetoric has to be seen for what it is,” writes Snyder, “which is preparation not just for trade war but for war itself.”

It’s amazing to be reading this from someone as eminent as Snyder (who will be teaching at the University of Toronto’s Munk School starting in September). It’s just as amazing to scratch a little deeper and realize that he’s far from alone in contemplating such a scenario.

In the past couple of weeks there’s been a slew of commentaries contemplating the possibility of American military force being used against Canada. A common thread is the comparison between Putin’s treatment of Ukraine and Trump’s view of Canada. Both see the adjoining territory as not quite legitimate, as part of their natural sphere of influence, as theirs for the taking. It’s a classic imperialist world-view.

So, in the Washington Post Ishaan Tharoor writes: “As Putin sees Ukraine, so Trump sees Canada.” The New York Times columnist David French says, “Canada is Donald Trump’s Ukraine.” Will Saletan makes the same point in The Bulwark.

To take it a step further, Noel Anderson of the University of Toronto writes in The Conversation that an American military invasion of Canada “is no longer unthinkable” (though also “highly unlikely”). Anderson notes that Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro has made the bizarre observation that Canada has been “taken over by Mexican cartels” – the kind of statement designed to persuade a certain type of American that this country is really an enemy behind the reassuring smiles.

Aisha Ahmad, also of the U of T, warns that an American invasion of Canada would “set in motion an unstoppable cycle of violence” that would eventually destroy both countries. And Richard Sandbrook, another U of T poli-sci prof, urges adding training in non-violent resistance and civil defence to Canada’s national security planning. Canada could not resist an American invasion with outright military force, he argues, but “Canadians can paralyze military might through civil, non-violent resistance.”

Finally, former State Department official Eliot Cohen writes in The Atlantic that invading Canada is simply not a good idea from an American POV. He reviews the checkered history of U.S. aggression against Canada and warns any American contemplating the idea that this country would be a tough nut to crack. “There is a martial spirit up north waiting to be reawakened,” he writes.

What to conclude, aside from the fact that academics and analysts enjoy playing with apocalyptic scenarios that, even given Trump’s aggressiveness and amorality, are still extremely unlikely?

To me, it drives home how completely Trump has shattered all assumptions of goodwill and fair-dealing underpinning Canada-U.S. relations. A smaller country living beside an enormous one cannot rely only on legal structures and treaty language. To have any real comfort it must assume a certain level of decency from the stronger party. That type of trust takes a very long time to establish, and Trump has annihilated it in a matter of weeks.

Canada, in its present form since Confederation, has lived alongside the United States for about 160 years. For the first half of that period, until the Second World War, its goal was to keep its distance from the U.S. as much as possible. For the second half, until late last year, it broadly took the opposite tack – trying to integrate as much as possible with the U.S. economically and militarily. Canada’s policy was to be America’s indispensable best friend and partner.

That’s clearly no longer possible. Even if a friendlier Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, Canada will no longer trust the Americans as it did for the past 80 or so years (certainly, it shouldn’t). I suspect the next long period will be all about taking our distance again. Once you’re actually contemplating the possibility of military invasion, that’s the only course possible.